In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. GNS science said there was a 30 per cent chance of a large earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years. / Science Topics Alpine Fault Project Releases Video Series to Mark Major Milestone. The length of the rupture will be up to 400 km, eg. This fault has ruptured four times in the past 900 years, each time producing an earthquake of about magnitude 8. and Goff, J. A big quake on the Alpine Fault could block South Island highways in more than 120 places and leave 10,000 people cut off, new research has estimated. on Haast and spreading north to Ahaura. He stressed the importance of being prepared, as main roading routes between Canterbury and the West Coast could be cut off. Home / Major Faults in New Zealand Each time it breaks in an earthquake, it has also moved upwards. In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. Horizontal movement of the Alpine Fault is about 30m per 1000 years — very fast by global standards. "Given what we know from geological studies of the Alpine Fault, we're anticipating a major magnitude 8.0-plus earthquake, rupturing 500km of the crust, so the shaking will be felt throughout the South Island, but the intensity and duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the fault." Alpine Fault: A single, relatively discrete fault surface within the Alpine Fault Zone, and its immediately associated pug, breccia, and minor faults. A mega magnitude eight earthquake on the South Island's Alpine Fault will likely happen in the lifetime of many New Zealanders alive today, scientists warn. 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In earthquake terms, t . It forms a transform boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault, specifically a right-lateral strike-slip fault, that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand’s South Island. Landslides would close major highways for up to six months, isolating communities and limiting food supplies across the South Island in the event of an Alpine Fault rupture. But good behaviour, in a scientific sense, may not bring much comfort to South Islanders. McFadgen, B.G. The Southern Alps have been uplifted on the fault over the last 12 million years in a series of earthquakes. - Toilet paper and large rubbish bags for your emergency toilet. An earlier event at around 1600 AD can be recognised throughout the study area, and this is the most recent event in the trench locations north of the Haupiri River. UC PhD graduate Tom Robinson investigated what would happen in a magnitude 8.0 event on the Alpine Fault, which has about a one-in-three to one-in-four chance of occurring in the next 50 years. / Earthquakes Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. Other problems were more likely to be an issue, such as damage to underground pipes, and major landslides along the South Island's main highways. It is the boundary between the Pacific … The Alpine Fault has a high probability (estimated at 30%) of rupturing in the next 50 years. The rapid uplift also means that faulted rock from deep down has been brought to the surface, and can be studied by scientists. / Learning The damaging Christchurch earthquakes ranged from magnitude 4.9 to 7.1 but what will happen when the Alpine fault goes and produces an 8, similar to the ’quakes in Japan? That's described as "very destructive;" weak buildings will fall down and many more will be damaged. An Alpine Fault earthquake will: Likely rupture along a larger area of the fault (several hundreds of kilometres) It will last longer (hundreds of seconds rather than tens of seconds) * When, not if: Alpine fault could cause 8 metres of movement GNS science said there was a 30 per cent chance of a large earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years. At 3 AM on May 29, 2013, the South Island’s technological unconscious roars […] The Alpine Fault stretches for hundreds of miles (kilometres) like a spine along New Zealand's South Island. The Alpine Fault, which runs for 650km along the spine of the Southern Alps, produces an earthquake of about magnitude 8 on average every 330 years. . It forms a transform boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. The opposite sides have slid sideways past each other for 480 kilometres over the last 15–20 million years, separating rocks that were originally joined together. Approximate rupture dates are 1717AD, 1620 AD, 1450 AD, and 1100 AD. The shaking in Christchurch, as some below have identified, will be slow and rolly, you will not reach the intensity that the greendale sequence did and definitely not Feb 22 levels. An Alpine Fault earthquake will likely rupture a larger fault length (several hundreds of kilometres rather than several tens of kilometres) over a longer period of time (100s of seconds rather than tens of seconds) and affect a much larger area than the Darfield earthquake. Recent research (published in 2012) by GNS Science has extended our knowledge of the Alpine fault earthquake record back through the past 8000 years. The last one was in 1717, 302 years ago, so a big one is coming. Bradley said emergency resources would be stretched if a major earthquake struck, and people could expect to "feel far more alone". Potentially there are a lot of things that can happen when and how the Alpine fault goes. and Goff, J. Based on this 8000-year history, it seems that the Alpine fault is relatively regular in how often it has earthquakes: more so than the San Andreas Fault in California, for example. The shortest gap between quakes was 140 years, and the longest 510. New research out today reveals that the Alpine Fault - a strike-slip fault running almost the entire length of the South Island - is surprisingly "well-behaved" in its regularity. The rupture will produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand, and it will have a major impact on the lives of many people. The central and southern parts of the Alpine Fault run for about 400 kilometres up the spine of the South Island, and are about 40 times longer than the fault responsible for the fatal February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch. By analysing sediment deposited at two sites in Fiordland – John O’Groats and Hokuri Creek – during previous earthquakes, scientists have established that the Alpine Fault has ruptured 27 times over the last 8000 years. Earthquakes along the fault, and the associated earth movements, have formed the Southern Alps. The Alpine Fault ruptures—on average—every 330 years with a magnitude 8 earthquake. part of Project AF8 (Alpine Fault magnitude 8). It would be more of a rolling motion for people in Christchurch, because of their distance away from the fault, he said. There is no way of predicting exactly when an earthquake will happen. It has ruptured four times in the last 900 years, resulting in earthquakes of around magnitude 8, and is now considered highly probable to go again in the next 50 years. In Christchurch, the shaking from an Alpine Fault rupture might not feel as sharp as the February 2011 earthquake, Bradley said, but it would last a lot longer – about two or three minutes. The Alpine Fault, which runs for about 600km up the spine of the South Island, is one of the world’s major geological features. Newsweek subscription offers > The Alpine Fault is one of the world's major plate boundaries and New Zealand's most hazardous earthquake-generating fault. The last time it did this was in 1717, when it produced about 8m of horizontal movement. The Alpine Fault ruptures—on average—every 330 years with a magnitude 8 earthquake. "The surface expression of the Alpine Fault is remarkably clear, but there is some debate about the shape of the fault as it goes several kilometres underground. 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